De mogelijkheden voor de Russen in Oekraine worden steeds lager ingeschat.
Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine "more aspirational than realistic," Western officials say
From CNN's Jim Sciutto
As Russia is expected to carry out a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, the US and its allies are skeptical that Russia has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains, according to US, UK and Ukrainian officials..
“It’s likely more aspirational than realistic,” a senior US military official told CNN.
"The meat grinder:" Russia has been increasing the number of forces situated on its border and inside Russian-held territory in Ukraine, some of the forces drawn from a partial mobilization ordered in September last year. Despite the increased numbers, Western allies have not seen evidence of sufficient changes to those forces’ ability to carry out combined arms operations needed to take and hold new territory.
“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.
Even the head of Russia’s Wagner private military company on Tuesday warned that the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was far from imminent.
“Bakhmut will not be taken tomorrow, because there is heavy resistance and grinding, the meat grinder is working,” Yevgeniy Prigozhin said in a statement distributed on a Wagner Telegram channel. “For the meat grinder to work properly, it is impossible to suddenly start festivities. There won't be any festivities anytime soon.”
The US military had assessed it would take as long as until May for the Russian military to regenerate enough power for a sustained offensive, but Russian leaders wanted action sooner. The US now sees it as likely that Russian forces are moving before they are ready due to political pressure from the Kremlin, the senior US military official told CNN.
Though Ukrainian officials have been sounding the alarm about new Russian attacks in the east, there is also skepticism on the Ukrainian side about Russian capabilities as those forces currently stand.
“They massed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”
There is also no indication of any pending massive aerial assault. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... 9f50f51ba5
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